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Iraq

by David Pascoe

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This and other three texts below contain short summaries on the status of the nation states that now have, and will in the future, the greatest effect on oil prices. They have been kept separate from the body of the report The Future of Fuel Prices because they are essentially political in nature.

The subject of Iraqi oil has been politically off-limits from the day of the invasion, as if the reason for the invasion were to take that oil by means of theft. Nevertheless, Iraq is the number two nation in proven conventional oil reserves, and Iraq does continue to produce oil and will continue to do so at an increasing rate.

Having been controlled by a war-mongering dictator for the last 30 years, this nation has never been thoroughly explored. But since 2003 a fair amount of seismic exploration has been done sufficient to raise predictions that this nation probably has more oil than Saudi Arabia. While that has yet to be proved, the fact remains that Iraq possesses enormous reserves estimated (pre 2003) at 112 billion barrels, and certainly more than that.

Iraq is currently producing at only half of existing capacity at 1.5 mb/d (million barrels/day). Her pre '03 production ran as high as 3.0 mb/d, but usually closer to 2.5 due to poor maintenance and management. The pre war state of infrastructure is said to be poor and typical of most oil nations run by dictators. In contrast, the current oil minister claims that the nation is capable of 6 mb/d and has set that as a target. However, only the northern Kurdish region is sufficiently secure for any serious development to take place. For the foreseeable future, Iraq must concentrate on defeating an insurrection.

As for Kurdistan, new developments are proceeding, including several new wells coming on line plus repair and placing into operation of an existing pipeline to Turkey capable of a half-million b/d. Every little bit helps.

If the insurrection could be quelled today, Iraq could single handedly solve the price problem and create a glut on the market within five years, but no one is placing any bets on that happening. The best that can be said at present is that the odds moderately favor the government getting the upper hand since the vast majority of people do not want to see the nation partitioned, and neither are they about to surrender it to the likes of Al Qaeda or the Ba'athists.

Contrary to the notion of Americans stealing the oil, a Finnish company is spearheading the efforts in Kurdistan. Though certainly American companies will have the advantage Iraq-wide, a legal system to deal with "who gets and does what" is yet to created by the government. Thus, though Iraq could up its production significantly in the near term, the possibility of 6 mb/d remains just that.

Back to The Future of Fuel Prices

Posted September 27, 2006

 

 

 

 

Chapter 1 
Basic Considerations
Chapter
 
Boat Types: Which is Right for You?
Chapter 3  
Old Boats, New Boats and Quality
Chapter 4 
Basic Hull Construction
Chapter 5  
Evaluating Boat Hulls
Chapter 6  
Performance and Sea Keeping
Chapter 7  
Decks & Superstructure
Chapter 8  
Stress Cracks, Finishes and Surface Defects
Chapter 9  
Power Options
Chapter 10
The Engine Room

Chapter 11
Electrical & Plumbing Systems
Chapter 12
Design Details
Chapter 13
Steering, Controls, Systems & Equipment
Chapter 14
The Art of the Deal

Chapter 15
Boat Shopping

Chapter 16
The Survey & Post Survey

Chapter 17
Boat Builders by Company

512 pages

 

Chapter 1   
What is Pre-Purchase Survey?
Chapter 2   
Business Practices and Client Relations

Chapter 3   
Sound vs. Seaworthiness

Chapter 4   
Procedures

Chapter 5   
Hull and Its Structure

Chapter 6   
Surveying the Hull
Chapter 7   
Using Moisture Meters

Chapter 8  
Stress Cracks & Surface Irregularities

Chapter 9   
Deck & Superstructure

Chapter 10   
Cockpits

Chapter 11 
Drive Train

Chapter 12 
Gas Engines

Chapter 13 
Fuel Systems

Chapter 14 
Exhaust Systems

Chapter 15 
Electrical Systems

Chapter 16 
Plumbing Systems

Chapter 17 
Sea Trials

Chapter 18 
Appraisal

Chapter 19 
Reporting

480 pages